Federer-Blake Rematch

Let's reload: Roger Federer v. James Blake, this time in the quarterfinals of the Nasdaq-100, broadcast today on ESPN2. Just over a week ago, these two squared off in the finals of the Pacific Life Open, and after a dicey first set for Fed, the ravishing Swiss shellacked Blake in three straight sets.

No suspense, it was Fed in straights again. The first set was tight, ending in a tiebreak, although Blake's serve looked fragile throughout. The second set was right out of the Pete Sampras playbook: Fed got the early break and rode it, conserving energy and serving it out to win 6-4.

I've now seen Blake hang tough with Fed for something like 4-5 individual sets. Yes, Blake always has a ferocious set in him. Suits his go-for-broke style. If he can crack some winners early, screw with Fed's rhythm, he can do some damage. Unfortunately, Fed knows this. When he plays Blake, Fed allows him to get into his game, maybe even get cocky, then he flips the switch and takes his own game to a higher level, at which point Blake becomes disoriented, frustrated, and generally demoralized. It amounts to emotional torment, in the end. What's Blake going to do? Run around every single backhand and try to hit his forehand harder and flatter? That's just what Fed wants him to do.

Think about it. Even if Blake managed to snare a set, Fed would just start serving and volleying or playing absurd clay-court angles. Blake, even if he were brimming with confidence, would still flounder in the face off all that variety. And note that the distressing fact remains: Federer plays and wins whole tournaments in third gear. My sense is that he he doesn't want to become too preoccupied with these post-Australian Open hardcourt events, because it might mess up his campaign for this year's true prize, the French Open (Fed wants a rematch with Rafael Nadal). Sure, if he wins, great. But he doesn't want to sweat too much. And he doesn't—literally. I mean, study the dude. He barely perspires. Meanwhile, Blake is completely soggy after three games.

Every guy in the top ten has one good set in him against Federer. But that's the crucial difference between Fed and his closest competition. In tonight's first set, Blake was playing as well as he can play, while Fed was conserving his best for the tiebreak. Once he bagged the first set, he could open up a bit and begin to clobber Blake in the second. Predictably, Blake lost it in the second, got disoriented, and was gone in a hurry.

Is there anything he can do to overtake Fed? He needs to serve bigger and pour on more pressure, specifically by attacking the net. The way I see it, that's his only chance. But it's a slim one.